Week 17 NFL Pick: Reeling NY Jets Take On Tough Miami Dolphins Squad

Saturday, December 31, 2011

by Aengus Moorehead

Week 17 NFL Pick: Reeling NY Jets Take On Tough Miami Dolphins Squad

Analysis:
While Rex Ryan continues running his mouth, the only team who seem to ignore the rants are his New York Jets. Two weeks ago, New York was on the cusp of a playoff berth, but it followed its three-game winning streak with a pair of stinkers against the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants, respectively.

Now, the Jets need to defeat the Dolphins and hope for army of favorable win/loss scenarios from other competitors. It's not a brand-new road for the New York Jets, but it sure seems different. This time around, they are no longer in control of their destiny.

Because the 2009 season ended with the team and its then-rookie head coach on the brink of a Super Bowl trip, many forget that successful stretch began with the Jets at 8-7 and needing a final-week victory to even reach the postseason tournament.

So while this year's scenario of "need a win, need some help" isn't a complete novelty, the interim flood of guarantees from third-year boss Rex Ryan somehow frames the club's current Week 17 situation -- which comes on the heels of two straight losses -- as a trifle more desperate.

In Ryan's favor, the Jets' supplemental needs aren't exactly David vs. Goliath. But based on the last two weeks, his own team might be the problem.

The Jets have looked more like a team playing for the No. 1 overall draft choice in their two most recent games, losing to Philadelphia by a 45-19 score on Dec. 18 and to the New York Giants, 29-14, this past Saturday.

New York beat Miami by a 24-6 count on Oct. 17, but hasn't swept a season series against the Dolphins since 2007.

Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez was 30-of-59 with two fourth-quarter interceptions against the Giants. He also lost a fumble near the goal line and was sacked in the end zone for a safety.

Sanchez also threw two interceptions and fumbled once against the Eagles.

The Dolphins, after an 0-7 start, have ridden the other side of the momentum roller coaster.

Miami is 5-3 since the inglorious beginning and has both a 1,000-yard rusher (Reggie Bush) and a 1,000-yard receiver (Brandon Marshall) for the first time in franchise history. Bush had 71 yards on 10 carries against the Jets in October, while Marshall caught six passes for 109 yards in that loss.

The Jets have a 48-42-1 lead in this long-played series in which the visitor has had plenty of success in recent years. The road team has prevailed in six of the last eight bouts between the teams, with New York coming through with a 31-23 victory in last season's stop at Sun Life Stadium behind three Sanchez touchdown passes and the Dolphins returning the favor via a 10-6 upset at the Meadowlands later in the year.

The Jets are 4-1 in Miami since the 2006 campaign, with the Dolphins' lone triumph over that span a 31-27 verdict in 2009, but as previously stated, haven't swept a home-and-home set from their longtime rival since 2007.

In addition to their regular-season history, the Jets and Dolphins also faced off in the 1982 AFC Championship, which went to Miami by a 14-0 score.

Ryan owns a 2-3 record against the Dolphins during his time in charge of the Jets', while Miami interim head coach Todd Bowles will be opposing both Ryan and New York for the first time in his present capacity.

Time & Venue:
- :00 PM ET, Sunday, January 1, 2012. Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

Last Week's results:
- New York Jets (-3) loses to visiting NY Giants 29-14.
- Miami Dolphins (+9.5) loses to host New England Patriots 27-24.

Last week's ATS:
- Favourite New York Jets (8-7) loses outright
- Underdog Miami Dolphins (5-10) loses but covers.

NFL Football Odds: Dolphins -3, O/U 41

Playoff Picture:
- New York Jets: The Jets clinch a wild-card spot with a win and either of the following scenarios: 1) CIN loss + TEN loss + OAK loss; 2) CIN loss + TEN loss + DEN loss. COMMENT: The Dolphins would love nothing better than to send New York home for the holidays. If the Jets manage to beat Miami, they would still need lots of help to get in.
- Miami Dolphins: Eliminated (week 14)

Much-maligned QB Sanchez was forced to put up a career-high 59 passes last week, which is not a recipe for success for the Jets. Sanchez also tossed a pair of interceptions and fumbled to up his turnover total to a staggering 23 this season. Sanchez was also sacked for a safety to cap his woeful fourth quarter against the Giants. Facing the NFL's third-best rush defense, RB Shonn Greene needs just three feet to record his first 1,000-yard season of his career.

Miami's all-time sack leader, Jason Taylor, will retire after Sunday's game. Taylor, 37, has recorded nine touchdowns – six fumble returns and three interceptions for scores – as well as 139.5 career sacks during his 15-year career. QB Matt Moore has come a long way since struggling in his first start for the Dolphins, which resulted in a 24-6 loss to the Jets on Oct. 17. After being intercepted twice in that game, Moore has rebounded to post a 103.9 passer rating over his last eight contests.

Sanchez has completed 60 percent of his passes just six times in 15 games this season, and just once since mid-November. His 59 pass attempts against the Giants were a career-high, leaving many to insist the Jets need to give him less responsibility and not more. Either way, he'll have to be on point for New York to keep its fading hopes alive.

Marshall's seven catches against New England were his most since Week 8, while his 156 yards totaled in that game marked his first triple-digit effort since Week 11. Unless he catches nine passes, his total for the season will be his lowest as a full-time NFL starter, and his one-on-one matchup with the All-Pro Darrelle Revis will be one to watch in this game.

Bowles, a New Jersey native, gets his third try at leading the Dolphins in a game situation. Though he's not considered a candidate for the full-time position, a win here would make him 2-1 with a strong performance against New England in a losing cause, and the Dolphins' performance hasn't dropped off since he took over.

Moore's favorite target is Pro Bowl WR Brandon Marshall, who is riding a three-game touchdown streak. Marshall, who reeled in seven catches for a season-best 156 yards against the Patriots, had six catches for 109 yards in his last meeting versus the Jets.

Jets CB Revis was selected to his fourth consecutive Pro Bowl appearance. Revis returned the first of his two interceptions for a 100-yard touchdown in the team's first meeting.

With Pro Bowl LT Jake Long sidelined with a season-ending right biceps tear, the Dolphins' offensive line will need to subdue the blitz-happy Jets. Miami is three sacks shy of breaking the franchise record, which was set in 1969.

Miami is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets
Miami is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games when playing at home against NY Jets
Miami is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games at home
NY Jets are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games when playing Miami
NY Jets are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing Miami
NY Jets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on the road

The pendulum on Ryan has swung precipitously to the negative in the last two weeks as what appeared to be a locked-down playoff spot has turned into a last- weekend long shot. It's hard to fathom how the outspoken coach might reinvent himself if the slump continues, but it's also worth noting that each time he and his team have been pushed to the brink, they've rallied. Benefit of the doubt gives he and the Jets the nod again here.

Bet on NFL Football games with Bovada Sportsbook, Click here!

NFL Football Pick: Take Jets.

Related Articles

Category

Tags

brandon marshall - darrelle revis - jake long - jason taylor - mark sanchez - matt moore - miami dolphins - new england patriots - new york jets - ny giants

Share this page